Tracker: Live map shows storm path to Florida

It has become the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with wind speeds reaching 180mph as it sweeps across the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Milton is set to hit Florida on Wednesday night.
It has become the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with wind speeds reaching 180mph as it sweeps across the Gulf of Mexico.
You can track it below.
Experts said unusually warm ocean temperatures had acted as “rocket fuel” for the storm.
“Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified at extreme levels over exceptionally warm waters that reach hundreds of feet deep in the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.
“The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of [Hurricane] Helene.”
Hotter water evaporates more readily, leading to rising columns of warm, moist air that fuel rapid intensification of weather systems.
On Monday, Milton grew from a tropical storm to a fierce category 5 hurricane.
It was downgraded to category 4 on Tuesday, but experts have warned that this does not mean that it will be less dangerous.
“In fact, there’s even more danger because the storm will broaden out and increase in size,” Jon Porter, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said.
Forecasters predict that Milton will make landfall around the Tampa Bay area of Florida.
The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, which hit in late September, killing more than 200 people and causing an estimated $38.5 billion (£29.4 billion) worth of damage.
The mayor of Tampa issued a powerful warning to residents, saying that if they choose not to evacuate they could die.
“If you choose to stay … you are going to die,” Jane Castor told CNN. “I can say without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re gonna die.”
The storm is predicted to travel across the Floridian Peninsula towards the Atlantic Ocean, sparing other US states ravaged by Helene.
Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, warned that time for people to evacuate is quickly running out.
“We have to assume this is going to be a monster,” he said at a press conference on Monday afternoon.
The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 8 and 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide conditions, and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) because of Hurricane Milton.
The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge. Last week, Hurricane Helene, which came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.
“Had it made landfall just a little farther to the south and east, it could have been a lot, lot worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The heightened risk is partially a result of topography. The Gulf of Mexico coastline of Florida is shallow with a gentle, sloping shelf. The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that retains the storm’s outflow of water, forcing the ocean to surge onto shore. That’s the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor drops suddenly a few miles from the coast.
“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different surges,” said Klotzbach.
A 2015 report from the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and stands to lose $175 billion in damage.
While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.
In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands like Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid, emerald Gulf waters. More than 51,000 people moved to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-largest-growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.
Longer-term residents, after having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home and used to build mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
Also lurking in the waves and wind are the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the oceans, led to sea level rise and added moisture to the air — all key factors determining a hurricane’s strength and the potential flooding it can cause.
“Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas,” Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote in a 2022 report.
On Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Milton to a Category 5 storm after it gained 75 mph (120 kph) of intensity in the last 24 hours. One reason may be especially high water temperatures, which act like fuel for the storm.
“Milton’s rapid intensification is incredible,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said in an email. “I’ve been pointing out for months, the Gulf has been and is record or near-record warm.”
The researcher noted that, due to rising sea levels brought on by climate change, Hurricane Andrew’s storm surge today would be 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher than it was when that storm pounded South Florida 30 years ago.
Officials in the area began issuing evacuation orders Monday for residents in six counties surrounding Tampa Bay that are home to almost 4 million people. Residents of mobile homes, RVs and manufactured homes not capable of withstanding winds of up to 110 mph (177 kph) are especially at risk.
Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie strongly urged people to leave coastal areas, noting people who died on barrier islands during Hurricane Ian in 2022 would still be alive if they just crossed the bridge to the mainland and found shelter.
“Please, if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they have called an evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave,” Guthrie said.
Almost inexplicably, storms seem to bypass Tampa, with most Gulf disturbances passing well north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was Oct. 25, 1921. The hurricane had no official name but is known locally as the Tarpon Springs storm, for the seaside town where it came ashore.
The storm surge from that hurricane, estimated at Category 3 with winds of up to 129 mph (207 kph) was pegged at 11 feet (3.3 meters). At least eight people died, and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time.
Now, the tourist-friendly area known for its sandy white beaches has grown by leaps and bounds, with an economy estimated to be worth nearly $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to wash away all of that development.
The storm is forecast to hit Florida’s eastern coast between 6pm and 11pm Wednesday night local time.
Some experts have said it could make landfall as late as Thursday morning.
A Miami meteorologist became visibly emotional during a live NBC TV broadcast as he reported on Hurricane Milton’s rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico.
Holding back tears, John Morales described the hurricane as “incredible” and “horrific” and said climate change and global warming were driving the storm’s growth.
“It has dropped fifty millibars in 10 hours,” Mr Morales said, his voice breaking up. “I apologize, this is just horrific.
“I mean, the seas are just so incredibly, incredibly hot. Record hot, as you might imagine,” he continued.
“You know what’s driving that, I don’t need to tell you: global warming, climate change.”
NBC6’s @JohnMoralesTV is the longest tenured TV meteorologist in south Florida. When he gets this serious, this emotional, on the air, viewers pay attention: pic.twitter.com/iiECZ8KaHx
Commenting on the incident, Mr Morales urged people to read an article he wrote in which he described how global warming had changed him.
“The warming world has forcibly shifted my manner from calm concern to agitated dismay,” Morales wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
“Frankly, YOU should be shaken too, and demand #ClimateActionNow,” he added in a post on X.
Elisa Raffa, a CNN meteorologist, described the hurricane as a “monster”, adding that it was “truly mind boggling & scary”.
“This is nothing short of astronomical,” Noah Bergren, a Fox weatherman, said. “I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity – 897mb pressure with 180mph max sustained winds and gusts 200mph+.
“This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce,” he said.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs until Nov 30.
On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classifies a major hurricane as a category 3 or higher.